MIA
TOR
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 10 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · TOR n/a | MIA 29% · TOR 71% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +240 · TOR -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 120, Heat 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 10 and Raptors by 23.
Side by side
| MIA | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | MIA 114 @ TOR 128 | TOR |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | MIA 95 @ TOR 121 | TOR |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | TOR 112 @ MIA 91 | TOR |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | TOR 106 @ MIA 96 | TOR |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | MIA 120 @ TOR 111 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works