MIA
UTA
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Jazz 27th (-8.4).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Heat cross 2 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Heat 16th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · UTA n/a | MIA 54% · UTA 46% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA -117 · UTA +117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 119, Heat 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 18 and Jazz by 15.
Side by side
| MIA | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | UTA 115 @ MIA 111 | UTA |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | MIA 147 @ UTA 116 | MIA |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | MIA 97 @ UTA 92 | MIA |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 136 @ MIA 100 | UTA |
| 2024-03-02 | 2023-24 | UTA 120 @ MIA 126 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works