MIA
WAS
Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · WAS n/a | MIA 54% · WAS 46% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA -118 · WAS +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 119, Heat 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Heat by 18 and Wizards by 15.
Side by side
| MIA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.6 12 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 113.4 11 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 111.8 14 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.1% 17 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.2% 14 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 12.8 4 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 25.2% 16 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.9% 12 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 106.3 1 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | MIA 140 @ WAS 117 | MIA |
| 2026-04-04 | 2025-26 | WAS 136 @ MIA 152 | MIA |
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | WAS 129 @ MIA 150 | MIA |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | MIA 132 @ WAS 101 | MIA |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | WAS 119 @ MIA 118 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works