MIL
ATL
Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 7,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,430 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · ATL n/a | MIL 24% · ATL 76% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +312 · ATL -312 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 121, Bucks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 8 and Hawks by 25.
Side by side
| MIL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ ATL 122 | ATL |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | ATL 131 @ MIL 113 | ATL |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ ATL 110 | MIL |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | ATL 145 @ MIL 124 | ATL |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | MIL 127 @ ATL 121 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works