MIL
BKN
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BKNBrooklyn Nets
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nets can win
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Nets win 5,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Bucks 30th (0.16).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Bucks 24th (13.0).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 23rd (23.8%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
Disadvantages Why Nets may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,490 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Nets 27th (34.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nets lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nets rank 30th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (105.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BKN -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · BKN n/a | MIL 45% · BKN 55% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +123 · BKN -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 117, Bucks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 15 and Nets by 18.
Side by side
| MIL | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-4 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | BKN 108 @ MIL 125 | MIL |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | MIL 90 @ BKN 96 | BKN |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | MIL 82 @ BKN 127 | BKN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ MIL 116 | MIL |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | BKN 113 @ MIL 110 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works