MIL
BOS
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.3 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 8,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,910 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Celtics 8th (36.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -11.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · BOS n/a | MIL 19% · BOS 81% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +424 · BOS -424 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 120, Bucks 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 6 and Celtics by 28.
Side by side
| MIL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | BOS 133 @ MIL 101 | BOS |
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | BOS 108 @ MIL 81 | BOS |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 79 @ BOS 107 | BOS |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-26 | BOS 101 @ MIL 116 | MIL |
| 2024-12-06 | 2024-25 | MIL 105 @ BOS 111 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works