MIL
CHA
Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Hornets win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 10 or more.
- History: the Bucks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.9 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · CHA n/a | MIL 30% · CHA 70% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +237 · CHA -237 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 116, Bucks 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 10 and Hornets by 24.
Side by side
| MIL | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | CHA 121 @ MIL 122 | MIL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | MIL 123 @ CHA 113 | MIL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | CHA 134 @ MIL 147 | MIL |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 100 @ CHA 111 | CHA |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | MIL 112 @ CHA 102 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works