MIL
CHI
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bulls
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bulls can win
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bulls win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Bucks 25th (15.2).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Bulls 22nd (0.20), Bucks 30th (0.16).
Disadvantages Why Bulls may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Bulls 22nd (35.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bulls lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Bulls rank 29th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.3 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · CHI n/a | MIL 45% · CHI 55% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +123 · CHI -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 121, Bucks 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 15 and Bulls by 18.
Side by side
| MIL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | CHI 132 @ MIL 125 | CHI |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 97 @ CHI 120 | CHI |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | CHI 115 @ MIL 131 | MIL |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ CHI 103 | MIL |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ MIL 126 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works