MIL
CLE
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 8 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · CLE n/a | MIL 25% · CLE 75% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +297 · CLE -297 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 121, Bucks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 8 and Cavaliers by 25.
Side by side
| MIL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | CLE 123 @ MIL 116 | CLE |
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | CLE 116 @ MIL 118 | MIL |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | MIL 106 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | CLE 112 @ MIL 100 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works