MIL
DAL
Milwaukee Bucks @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 7,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,730 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 9 or more.
- History: the Bucks won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · DAL n/a | MIL 27% · DAL 73% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +266 · DAL -266 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 120, Bucks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 9 and Mavericks by 24.
Side by side
| MIL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | DAL 99 @ MIL 123 | MIL |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | MIL 116 @ DAL 114 | MIL |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | DAL 107 @ MIL 137 | MIL |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | MIL 132 @ DAL 117 | MIL |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | MIL 129 @ DAL 117 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works