MIL
DEN
Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 7,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 13th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,620 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.3 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · DEN n/a | MIL 26% · DEN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +282 · DEN -282 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 120, Bucks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 8 and Nuggets by 25.
Side by side
| MIL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | DEN 102 @ MIL 100 | DEN |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | MIL 104 @ DEN 108 | DEN |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | MIL 117 @ DEN 127 | DEN |
| 2025-02-27 | 2024-25 | DEN 112 @ MIL 121 | MIL |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | DEN 95 @ MIL 112 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works