MIL
DET
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.7 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,670 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -12.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.8 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · DET n/a | MIL 17% · DET 83% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +499 · DET -499 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 119, Bucks 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 4 and Pistons by 29.
Side by side
| MIL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | MIL 111 @ DET 137 | DET |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | MIL 112 @ DET 124 | DET |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | DET 109 @ MIL 113 | MIL |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | DET 129 @ MIL 116 | DET |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | DET 133 @ MIL 140 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works