MIL
GSW
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 7,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Bucks -10.8.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,900 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Warriors 16th (35.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.5 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · GSW n/a | MIL 29% · GSW 71% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +245 · GSW -245 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 120, Bucks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 9 and Warriors by 23.
Side by side
| MIL | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ GSW 120 | GSW |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-26 | GSW 110 @ MIL 120 | MIL |
| 2025-03-18 | 2024-25 | MIL 93 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2025-02-10 | 2024-25 | GSW 125 @ MIL 111 | GSW |
| 2024-03-06 | 2023-24 | MIL 90 @ GSW 125 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works