MIL
HOU
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
86% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,400 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 3 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -14.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · HOU n/a | MIL 14% · HOU 86% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +612 · HOU -612 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 121, Bucks 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 3 and Rockets by 31.
Side by side
| MIL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | HOU 132 @ MIL 100 | HOU |
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ HOU 119 | HOU |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | HOU 122 @ MIL 115 | HOU |
| 2025-02-25 | 2024-25 | MIL 97 @ HOU 100 | HOU |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-25 | HOU 100 @ MIL 101 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works