MIL
IND
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 6,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Bucks 25th (15.2).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,580 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Pacers 20th (35.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · IND n/a | MIL 36% · IND 64% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +179 · IND -179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 119, Bucks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 12 and Pacers by 21.
Side by side
| MIL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | IND 102 @ MIL 110 | MIL |
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | IND 123 @ MIL 134 | MIL |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | IND 99 @ MIL 105 | MIL |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | MIL 111 @ IND 94 | MIL |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | MIL 117 @ IND 115 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works