MIL
LAL
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
82% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 8,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,800 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 5 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Lakers 9th (36.3%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Lakers 19th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -11.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.8 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · LAL n/a | MIL 18% · LAL 82% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +456 · LAL -456 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 121, Bucks 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 5 and Lakers by 28.
Side by side
| MIL | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | MIL 105 @ LAL 101 | MIL |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | LAL 119 @ MIL 95 | LAL |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ LAL 89 | MIL |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | LAL 106 @ MIL 126 | MIL |
| 2024-03-26 | 2023-24 | LAL 128 @ MIL 124 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works