MIL
MEM
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Grizzlies 17th (35.5%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 8 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · MEM n/a | MIL 26% · MEM 74% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +293 · MEM -293 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 120, Bucks 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 8 and Grizzlies by 25.
Side by side
| MIL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ MIL 131 | MIL |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 104 @ MEM 125 | MEM |
| 2025-02-02 | 2024-25 | MEM 132 @ MIL 119 | MEM |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024-25 | MIL 99 @ MEM 122 | MEM |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | MEM 111 @ MIL 101 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works