MIL
MIA
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 10 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Heat 12th (35.9%).
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · MIA n/a | MIL 33% · MIA 67% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +206 · MIA -206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 121, Bucks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 10 and Heat by 23.
Side by side
| MIL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 105 @ MIA 112 | MIA |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | MIA 117 @ MIL 128 | MIL |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 103 @ MIA 106 | MIA |
| 2025-04-05 | 2024-25 | MIL 121 @ MIA 115 | MIL |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | MIA 113 @ MIL 120 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works