MIL
NOP
Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Bucks -10.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.9 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · NOP n/a | MIL 35% · NOP 65% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +186 · NOP -186 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 121, Bucks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 12 and Pelicans by 21.
Side by side
| MIL | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | MIL 139 @ NOP 118 | MIL |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | NOP 137 @ MIL 141 | MIL |
| 2025-04-10 | 2024-25 | NOP 111 @ MIL 136 | MIL |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | MIL 111 @ NOP 107 | MIL |
| 2024-03-28 | 2023-24 | MIL 100 @ NOP 107 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works