MIL
NYK
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.5 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 8,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,910 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -11.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · NYK n/a | MIL 19% · NYK 81% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +425 · NYK -425 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 119, Bucks 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 6 and Knicks by 28.
Side by side
| MIL | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 2025-26 | NYK 127 @ MIL 98 | NYK |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | MIL 109 @ NYK 118 | NYK |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | NYK 111 @ MIL 121 | MIL |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | NYK 116 @ MIL 107 | NYK |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | MIL 106 @ NYK 140 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works