MIL
OKC
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 8,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Bucks -10.8.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,680 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 5 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Thunder 10th (36.2%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.3 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · OKC n/a | MIL 17% · OKC 83% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +494 · OKC -494 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 120, Bucks 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 5 and Thunder by 29.
Side by side
| MIL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 110 @ OKC 93 | MIL |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | OKC 122 @ MIL 102 | OKC |
| 2025-03-16 | 2024-25 | OKC 121 @ MIL 105 | OKC |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | MIL 96 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2024-12-17 | 2024-25 | MIL 97 @ OKC 81 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works