MIL
PHX
Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Simulation: the Suns win 6,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Suns 13th (35.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 229 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · PHX n/a | MIL 33% · PHX 67% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +206 · PHX -206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 118, Bucks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 11 and Suns by 22.
Side by side
| MIL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | MIL 108 @ PHX 105 | MIL |
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | PHX 129 @ MIL 114 | PHX |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | PHX 123 @ MIL 133 | MIL |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | MIL 106 @ PHX 108 | PHX |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | PHX 129 @ MIL 140 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works