MIL
POR
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.8 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · POR n/a | MIL 25% · POR 75% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +297 · POR -297 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 121, Bucks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 8 and Trail Blazers by 26.
Side by side
| MIL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ POR 130 | POR |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | POR 115 @ MIL 103 | POR |
| 2025-01-28 | 2024-25 | MIL 112 @ POR 125 | POR |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | POR 105 @ MIL 102 | POR |
| 2024-01-31 | 2023-24 | MIL 116 @ POR 119 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works