MIL
SAC
Milwaukee Bucks @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MILMilwaukee Bucks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bucks can win
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Kings 30th (33.8%).
- Simulation: the Bucks win 5,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Bucks in our ratings.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Kings 21st (73.4%).
Disadvantages Why Bucks may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 4,920 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Bucks 25th (15.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bucks lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIL -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.6 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · SAC n/a | MIL 51% · SAC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL -103 · SAC +103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 117, Bucks 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 17 and Kings by 17.
Side by side
| MIL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MIL 115 @ SAC 98 | MIL |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 135 @ MIL 133 | SAC |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | MIL 114 @ SAC 108 | MIL |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | SAC 115 @ MIL 130 | MIL |
| 2024-03-12 | 2023-24 | MIL 94 @ SAC 129 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works