MIL
SAS
Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
85% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Bucks -10.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,540 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -13.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · SAS n/a | MIL 15% · SAS 85% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +549 · SAS -549 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 121, Bucks 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 4 and Spurs by 30.
Side by side
| MIL | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | SAS 127 @ MIL 95 | SAS |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | MIL 101 @ SAS 119 | SAS |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ SAS 144 | SAS |
| 2025-01-08 | 2024-25 | SAS 105 @ MIL 121 | MIL |
| 2024-01-04 | 2023-24 | MIL 125 @ SAS 121 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works