MIL
TOR
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 8,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,980 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 8th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 6 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -10.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · TOR n/a | MIL 20% · TOR 80% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +404 · TOR -404 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 120, Bucks 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 6 and Raptors by 27.
Side by side
| MIL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | TOR 122 @ MIL 94 | TOR |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 111 @ MIL 105 | TOR |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | MIL 100 @ TOR 128 | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | MIL 122 @ TOR 116 | MIL |
| 2025-01-17 | 2024-25 | TOR 112 @ MIL 130 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works