MIL
UTA
Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Simulation: the Jazz win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Bucks 30th (21.7%).
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Bucks 30th (0.16).
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Jazz 24th (34.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 13 or more.
- The Bucks' offense (110.1 points per 100 possessions, 24th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.1 |
| Win chance | MIL n/a · UTA n/a | MIL 41% · UTA 59% |
| Fair moneyline | MIL +145 · UTA -145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 119, Bucks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Bucks by 13 and Jazz by 19.
Side by side
| MIL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -6.4 25 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 116.5 27 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 56.3% 3 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.7% 25 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 21.7% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 38.4% 2 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 100.6 22 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | MIL 96 @ UTA 128 | UTA |
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 99 @ MIL 113 | MIL |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | MIL 125 @ UTA 110 | MIL |
| 2024-11-07 | 2024-25 | UTA 100 @ MIL 123 | MIL |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | MIL 108 @ UTA 123 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works