MIN
ATL
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Hawks +4.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Timberwolves 15th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,680 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 16 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.3 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · ATL n/a | MIN 53% · ATL 47% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -114 · ATL +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 117, Timberwolves 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 18 and Hawks by 16.
Side by side
| MIN | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | ATL 116 @ MIN 138 | MIN |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | MIN 102 @ ATL 126 | ATL |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | ATL 92 @ MIN 100 | MIN |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | MIN 104 @ ATL 117 | ATL |
| 2024-04-12 | 2023-24 | ATL 106 @ MIN 109 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works