MIN
BOS
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 16 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Timberwolves 15th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.6 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · BOS n/a | MIN 46% · BOS 54% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +115 · BOS -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 114, Timberwolves 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 16 and Celtics by 18.
Side by side
| MIN | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | MIN 102 @ BOS 92 | MIN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | BOS 115 @ MIN 119 | MIN |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | BOS 118 @ MIN 115 | BOS |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ BOS 107 | BOS |
| 2024-01-10 | 2023-24 | MIN 120 @ BOS 127 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works