MIN
CHA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 14 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 3rd (76.6%), Timberwolves 9th (74.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · CHA n/a | MIN 59% · CHA 41% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -143 · CHA +143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 111, Timberwolves 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 20 and Hornets by 14.
Side by side
| MIN | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | CHA 122 @ MIN 108 | CHA |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | MIN 122 @ CHA 105 | MIN |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | MIN 125 @ CHA 110 | MIN |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | CHA 93 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | CHA 128 @ MIN 125 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works