MIN
DAL
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Mavericks +2.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 14 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · DAL n/a | MIN 58% · DAL 42% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -138 · DAL +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 115, Timberwolves 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 19 and Mavericks by 14.
Side by side
| MIN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ DAL 94 | MIN |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ MIN 122 | MIN |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | MIN 118 @ DAL 105 | MIN |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | DAL 96 @ MIN 120 | MIN |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | MIN 115 @ DAL 114 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works