MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

MINMinnesota Timberwolves

56% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIN 56%DEN 44%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Timberwolves can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Nuggets -3.2.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Timberwolves' offense (112.7 points per 100 possessions, 13th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Timberwolves 13th (26.0%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).

Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not

Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MIN -2
Total points	n/a	230.9
Win chance	MIN n/a · DEN n/a	MIN 56% · DEN 44%
Fair moneyline		MIN -126 · DEN +126

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 115, Timberwolves 116.
80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 19 and Nuggets by 15.

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Side by side

MIN		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
+2.6 11	Net rating	+4.1 7
112.7 13	Offensive rating	118.2 1
110.1 8	Defensive rating	114.1 21
55.1% 9	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
52.8% 5	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.3 16	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
26.0% 13	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
36.7% 6	3-point %	38.8% 1
103.8 10	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-30	Playoffs	DEN 98 @ MIN 110	MIN
2026-04-27	Playoffs	MIN 113 @ DEN 125	DEN
2026-04-25	Playoffs	DEN 96 @ MIN 112	MIN
2026-04-23	Playoffs	DEN 96 @ MIN 113	MIN
2026-04-20	Playoffs	MIN 119 @ DEN 114	MIN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIN

Anthony Edwards G

28.1 pts, 5 reb, 3.6 ast in 34.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIN

Jonathan Kuminga F

13.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3 ast in 30.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIN

Rudy Gobert C

10.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 1.7 ast in 31.2 min, 65% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Timberwolves beat the Nuggets 110-98 at home (West 1st Round - Game 6). The difference: they won the boards 50 to 33 and they committed 5 fewer turnovers (8 to 13). Jaden McDaniels led the Timberwolves with 32 points.