MIN
DET
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 4,310 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pistons +6.4.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Pistons 24th (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.4 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · DET n/a | MIN 43% · DET 57% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +132 · DET -132 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 114, Timberwolves 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 14 and Pistons by 19.
Side by side
| MIN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 108 @ DET 113 | DET |
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | DET 109 @ MIN 87 | DET |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | DET 104 @ MIN 123 | MIN |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ DET 119 | DET |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | DET 91 @ MIN 106 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works