MIN
GSW
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Warriors -1.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 4,060 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Timberwolves cross 2 time zones.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Warriors 5th (15.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · GSW n/a | MIN 59% · GSW 41% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -146 · GSW +146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 115, Timberwolves 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 20 and Warriors by 13.
Side by side
| MIN | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | GSW 119 @ MIN 114 | GSW |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GSW 117 | MIN |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | GSW 83 @ MIN 108 | MIN |
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | GSW 111 @ MIN 85 | GSW |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GSW 120 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works