MIN
HOU
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · HOU n/a | MIN 38% · HOU 62% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +163 · HOU -163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 116, Timberwolves 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 13 and Rockets by 21.
Side by side
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | MIN 136 @ HOU 132 | MIN |
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | HOU 108 @ MIN 110 | MIN |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | MIN 105 @ HOU 110 | HOU |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | MIN 115 @ HOU 121 | HOU |
| 2025-02-06 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ MIN 127 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works