MIN
IND
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pacers +0.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,360 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 11 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · IND n/a | MIN 66% · IND 34% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -197 · IND +197 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 114, Timberwolves 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 22 and Pacers by 11.
Side by side
| MIN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ IND 104 | MIN |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | IND 110 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | MIN 103 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | IND 132 @ MIN 130 | IND |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | MIN 113 @ IND 111 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works