MIN
LAC
Minnesota Timberwolves @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Clippers -1.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Timberwolves cross 2 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · LAC n/a | MIN 58% · LAC 42% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -137 · LAC +137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 112, Timberwolves 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 19 and Clippers by 14.
Side by side
| MIN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ LAC 153 | LAC |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | MIN 94 @ LAC 88 | MIN |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ MIN 96 | LAC |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | LAC 106 @ MIN 109 | MIN |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | LAC 106 @ MIN 108 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works