MIN
MEM
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' offense (112.7 points per 100 possessions, 13th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,560 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.5 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · MEM n/a | MIN 54% · MEM 46% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -119 · MEM +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 115, Timberwolves 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 18 and Grizzlies by 15.
Side by side
| MIN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | MEM 110 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ MEM 137 | MEM |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | MIN 131 @ MEM 114 | MIN |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-26 | MEM 116 @ MIN 110 | MEM |
| 2025-04-10 | 2024-25 | MIN 141 @ MEM 125 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works