MIN
MIA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.8 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 236 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · MIA n/a | MIN 63% · MIA 37% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -168 · MIA +168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 116, Timberwolves 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 21 and Heat by 12.
Side by side
| MIN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | MIN 131 @ MIA 106 | MIN |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | MIA 94 @ MIN 122 | MIN |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | MIN 125 @ MIA 115 | MIN |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | MIN 106 @ MIA 104 | MIN |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | MIA 95 @ MIN 94 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works