MIN
MIL
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 8 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -8.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · MIL n/a | MIN 74% · MIL 26% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -292 · MIL +292 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 112, Timberwolves 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 25 and Bucks by 8.
Side by side
| MIN | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | MIN 139 @ MIL 106 | MIN |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | MIL 100 @ MIN 103 | MIN |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | MIN 103 @ MIL 110 | MIL |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | MIL 103 @ MIN 101 | MIL |
| 2024-02-23 | 2023-24 | MIL 112 @ MIN 107 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works