MIN
NOP
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 11 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.6 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · NOP n/a | MIN 66% · NOP 34% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -194 · NOP +194 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 115, Timberwolves 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 21 and Pelicans by 11.
Side by side
| MIN | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | NOP 126 @ MIN 132 | MIN |
| 2026-02-06 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ MIN 115 | NOP |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 125 @ NOP 116 | MIN |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 149 @ NOP 142 | MIN |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | NOP 93 @ MIN 134 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works