MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

54% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIN 46%NYK 54%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Knicks win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Knicks +0.2.
Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 16 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Timberwolves 15th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -1.3
Total points	n/a	224.9
Win chance	MIN n/a · NYK n/a	MIN 46% · NYK 54%
Fair moneyline		MIN +117 · NYK -117

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 113, Timberwolves 112.
80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 16 and Knicks by 18.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

MIN		NYK
3-2	Record	2-3
+2.6 11	Net rating	+7.6 3
112.7 13	Offensive rating	116.4 3
110.1 8	Defensive rating	108.7 4
55.1% 9	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
52.8% 5	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
14.3 16	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
26.0% 13	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
36.7% 6	3-point %	37.5% 3
103.8 10	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-23	2025-26	NYK 104 @ MIN 115	MIN
2025-11-05	2025-26	MIN 114 @ NYK 137	NYK
2025-01-17	2024-25	MIN 116 @ NYK 99	MIN
2024-12-19	2024-25	NYK 133 @ MIN 107	NYK
2024-01-01	2023-24	MIN 106 @ NYK 112	NYK

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIN

Anthony Edwards G

28.1 pts, 5 reb, 3.6 ast in 34.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIN

Jonathan Kuminga F

13.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3 ast in 30.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

MIN

Rudy Gobert C

10.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 1.7 ast in 31.2 min, 65% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Timberwolves beat the Knicks 115-104 at home (2025-12-23). The difference: they committed 8 fewer turnovers (11 to 19) and they shot 53% effective field goal percentage to 47%. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 38 points.