MIN
OKC
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Thunder +3.6.
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Timberwolves 13th (26.0%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.9 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · OKC n/a | MIN 44% · OKC 56% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +128 · OKC -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 114, Timberwolves 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 15 and Thunder by 19.
Side by side
| MIN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | MIN 103 @ OKC 116 | OKC |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ MIN 123 | MIN |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | OKC 107 @ MIN 112 | MIN |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | MIN 105 @ OKC 113 | OKC |
| 2025-05-28 | Playoffs | MIN 94 @ OKC 124 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works