MIN
ORL
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · ORL n/a | MIN 65% · ORL 35% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -183 · ORL +183 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 113, Timberwolves 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 22 and Magic by 12.
Side by side
| MIN | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | MIN 115 @ ORL 93 | MIN |
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | MIN 120 @ ORL 132 | ORL |
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | ORL 119 @ MIN 92 | ORL |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | ORL 111 @ MIN 118 | MIN |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | MIN 104 @ ORL 89 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works