MIN
PHI
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, 76ers +3.4.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,280 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · PHI n/a | MIN 57% · PHI 43% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -134 · PHI +134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 114, Timberwolves 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 19 and 76ers by 15.
Side by side
| MIN | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | MIN 103 @ PHI 115 | PHI |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | PHI 135 @ MIN 108 | PHI |
| 2025-04-05 | 2024-25 | MIN 114 @ PHI 109 | MIN |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | PHI 112 @ MIN 126 | MIN |
| 2023-12-20 | 2023-24 | MIN 113 @ PHI 127 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works