MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

PHX

Our pick

MINMinnesota Timberwolves

63% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

MIN 63%PHX 37%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Timberwolves can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Suns -14.3.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.

Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not

Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Suns win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MIN -4.4
Total points	n/a	228.7
Win chance	MIN n/a · PHX n/a	MIN 63% · PHX 37%
Fair moneyline		MIN -171 · PHX +171

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Suns 112, Timberwolves 117.
80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 21 and Suns by 12.

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Side by side

MIN		PHX
3-2	Record	1-2
+2.6 11	Net rating	+0.2 16
112.7 13	Offensive rating	111.8 17
110.1 8	Defensive rating	111.6 13
55.1% 9	Effective FG%	53.7% 19
52.8% 5	Opponent eFG%	54.3% 16
14.3 16	Turnovers per 100	14.5 19
26.0% 13	Offensive rebound %	28.7% 7
36.7% 6	3-point %	35.9% 13
103.8 10	Pace	100.3 26

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-17	2025-26	PHX 104 @ MIN 116	MIN
2025-12-08	2025-26	PHX 108 @ MIN 105	PHX
2025-11-21	2025-26	MIN 113 @ PHX 114	PHX
2025-03-28	2024-25	PHX 109 @ MIN 124	MIN
2025-03-02	2024-25	MIN 116 @ PHX 98	MIN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

MIN

Anthony Edwards G

28.1 pts, 5 reb, 3.6 ast in 34.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

MIN

Jonathan Kuminga F

13.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3 ast in 30.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

MIN

Rudy Gobert C

10.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 1.7 ast in 31.2 min, 65% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Timberwolves beat the Suns 116-104 at home (2026-03-17). The difference: they shot 57% effective field goal percentage to 45% and they won the boards 49 to 40. Julius Randle led the Timberwolves with 32 points.