MIN
POR
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Trail Blazers win 4,560 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Timberwolves cross 2 time zones.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Timberwolves 13th (26.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · POR n/a | MIN 54% · POR 46% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -119 · POR +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 115, Timberwolves 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 18 and Trail Blazers by 15.
Side by side
| MIN | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | POR 108 @ MIN 104 | POR |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ POR 121 | MIN |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | POR 109 @ MIN 133 | MIN |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | MIN 118 @ POR 114 | MIN |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | POR 98 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works