MIN
SAC
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Kings -16.6.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,120 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 6 or more.
- Body clock: the Timberwolves cross 2 time zones.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -10.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.2 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · SAC n/a | MIN 79% · SAC 21% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -371 · SAC +371 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 112, Timberwolves 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 27 and Kings by 6.
Side by side
| MIN | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-5 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | SAC 103 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | MIN 112 @ SAC 117 | SAC |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | SAC 110 @ MIN 124 | MIN |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | MIN 144 @ SAC 117 | MIN |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | SAC 116 @ MIN 114 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works