MIN
TOR
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Strength: the Raptors rank 3rd of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- History: the Timberwolves won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.8 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · TOR n/a | MIN 47% · TOR 53% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +112 · TOR -112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 115, Timberwolves 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 16 and Raptors by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | TOR 94 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | TOR 107 @ MIN 115 | MIN |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ TOR 126 | MIN |
| 2024-11-21 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ TOR 110 | TOR |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024-25 | TOR 101 @ MIN 112 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works