MIN
UTA
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.3 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Jazz -7.8.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 9 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · UTA n/a | MIN 72% · UTA 28% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -252 · UTA +252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 114, Timberwolves 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 24 and Jazz by 9.
Side by side
| MIN | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | UTA 111 @ MIN 147 | MIN |
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | MIN 122 @ UTA 127 | UTA |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | MIN 120 @ UTA 113 | MIN |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 97 @ MIN 137 | MIN |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | UTA 105 @ MIN 116 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works